Sea Surface Temperature
(SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 1 initialized in August
2008:
Model 1 is predicting a return
to slightly warm conditions in 2008.
Figure:
Model 1 forecast of tropical Pacific SST
(°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for SON 2008,DJF 2008/2009, MAM 2009 and JJA 2009.
Each forecast
is an ensemble average of
12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs
perturbated
by random noise. Observed data through 31st of August 2008 was used
to
produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA
amplitude
larger than 0.5°C are in yellow-orange. The longuest wind stress
arrow
on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side.
Only wind stress anomalies for which the wind modulus is larger than
0.1
Dyn/cm2 are plotted.
Warning:
The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at
LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should
not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions.
They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the
ocean-atmosphere system.