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by Webmaster Legos last modified Aug 02, 2012 02:55 PM

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 2 initialized in November 2002:

Model 2 is predicting warm conditions through out the year 2003.


Figure: Model 2 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for  DJF 2002/2003, MAM 2003, JJA 2003 and SON 2003. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 14th of November 2002 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C are in yellow-orange and dashed contour line are used for value below zero. The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which wind modulus is larger than 0.1 Dyn/cm2 are plotted.

Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.

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