Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 1 initialized in February 2009:
- Model 1 is predicting a return to slightly warm conditions in 2009.
Figure: Model 1 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for MAM 2009, JJA 2009, SON 2009 and DJF 2009/2010. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 28th of February 2009 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C are in yellow-orange. The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which the wind modulus is larger than 0.1 Dyn/cm2 are plotted.
Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.