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Jeudi 30 Avril - Forecasting climate change impacts on large pelagic fish populations and fisheries: progress, uncertainties and research needs

Par semsou — Dernière modification 24/04/2015 11:02
Quand ? Le 30/04/2015,
de 11:00 à 12:00
Où ? Salle Lyot
Participants Lehodey Patrick, CLS, France
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Lehodey Patrick, CLS, France


Titre: Forecasting climate change impacts on large pelagic fish populations and fisheries: progress, uncertainties and research needs

Résumé: High Seas pelagic fisheries target only a limited number of tuna species and billfishes (swordfish and marlins). The short-living skipjack tuna is the most tropical and productive species while bluefin tuna is the most temperate and long living species, providing small but extremely valuable levels of catch. A dozen of other exploited species share this oceanic habitat with other large predators, including sharks, and marine mammals, turtles and sea birds. These species have overlapping vertical and horizontal habitats defined by their preferences and tolerances developed over the evolution for several key physical and biological variables. Though some tuna and billfishes can move far in high latitudes searching for rich foraging grounds they all return to warm waters (roughly >24°C) for spawning, leading to seasonal migrations and complex population dynamics mechanisms interacting with several environmental variables. Therefore, characterizing habitats and projecting them in the future using IPCC scenarios is a useful but incomplete approach when investigating the impact of climate change on these species. The progress in the study of climate change impacts on tuna and associated species is reviewed with highlights on recent results based on a modeling framework developed to simulate the spatial dynamics of fish with mechanisms constrained by relationships based on the bio-physical environment predicted from coupled 3D models of ocean physics and biogeochemistry. This framework includes a Maximum likelihood Estimation approach allowing reconstructing past history of fish population, to dissociate fishing impacts from natural variability, and to forecast population dynamics under climate change scenarios. Future perspectives for a better modelling and management of tuna stocks and fisheries in the coming decades are discussed.

 

 

 




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