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forecastsmod2

Par Webmaster Legos Dernière modification 02/08/2012 17:15

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 2 initialized in November 2004:


Model 2 is predicting near normal conditions beginning of 2005 and a slight warming by the end of 2005.

sstaml36912mod2

Figure: Model 2 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for DJF 2003/2004, MAM 2005, JJA 2005 and SON 2005. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 30th of November 2004 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C (lower than -0.5°C) are in yellow-orange (blue). The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which wind modulus is larger than 0.1 Dyn/cm2 are plotted.

Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.


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