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forecastsmod2

Par Webmaster Legos Dernière modification 02/08/2012 19:36

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 2 initialized in May 2008:


Model 2 is predicting a return to warm conditions in 2009.

sstaml36912mod2

Figure: Model 2 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for JJA 2008, SON 2008, DJF 2008/2009 and MAM 2009. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 30th of May 2008 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C (lower than -0.5°C) are in yellow-orange (blue). The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which wind modulus is larger than 0.1 Dyn/cm2 are plotted.

Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.


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