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forecastsmod1

Par Webmaster Legos Dernière modification 02/08/2012 16:34

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 1 initialized in May 2004:


Model 1 is predicting moderate El Niño conditions by the end of 2004-beginning of 2005.

sstaml36912mod1

Figure: Model 1 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for JJA 2004, SON 2004, DJF 2004/2005 and MAM 2005. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 28th of May 2004 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C are in yellow-orange. The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which the wind modulus is larger than 0.1 Dyn/cm2 are plotted.

Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.


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