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by Webmaster Legos last modified Aug 02, 2012 03:14 PM

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 1 initialized in May 2003:

Model 1 is predicting slightly cold conditions through out the year 2003.


Figure: Model 1 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for JJA 2003, SON 2003 and DJF 2003/2004 and MAM 2004. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 28th of May 2003 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude lower than -0.5°C are in blue. The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which the wind modulus is larger than 0.1 Dyn/cm2 are plotted.

Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.

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