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by Webmaster Legos last modified Aug 02, 2012 03:30 PM

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and wind stress anomalies for Model 1 initialized in February 2004:

Model 1 is predicting moderate El Niño conditions by the end of 2004.


Figure: Model 1 forecast of tropical Pacific SST (°C) and wind stress (Dyn/cm2) anomalies for MAM 2004, JJA 2004, SON 2004 and DJF 2004/2005. Each forecast is an ensemble average of 12 sets of prediction runs initialized from wind forced model outputs perturbated by random noise. Observed data through 25th of February 2004 was used to produce the forecast. Contour interval 0.5°C. Regions with SSTA amplitude larger than 0.5°C are in yellow-orange. The longuest wind stress arrow on each map corresponds to the value indicated on the right hand side. Only wind stress anomalies for which the wind modulus is larger than 0.1 Dyn/cm2 are plotted.

Warning: The El Niño forecasts are part of an ongoing research effort at LEGOS, and do not represent official forecasts. These forecasts should not be used as the basis of any commercial, policy, or other decisions. They are strictly research tools for advancing the understanding of the ocean-atmosphere system.

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