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You are here: Home / Events / Seminars / Seminaires Septembre 2018-Aout 2019 / Jeudi 23 Mai - Influence of natural modes of oceanic variability on the Eastern Pacific hurricane activity – (Implications for hurricane seasonal forecasts)

Jeudi 23 Mai - Influence of natural modes of oceanic variability on the Eastern Pacific hurricane activity – (Implications for hurricane seasonal forecasts)

by SEMSOU last modified Apr 25, 2019 03:36 PM
When May 23, 2019
from 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM
Where salle Coriolis
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Julien Boucharel

LEGOS, projet MOPGA (Make Our Planet Great Again)

 

Title : Influence of natural modes of oceanic variability on the Eastern Pacific hurricane activity – (Implications for hurricane seasonal forecasts)

 

Abstract: Hurricanes or Tropical Cyclones (TC) are among the most destructive natural phenomena on Earth and severely impact nearly a billion people. TC in the Central-Eastern Pacific (CEP, the second most active basin) have drastic economic consequences on the southwestern U.S, Central America and Hawaii. There have been increasing interests in understanding CEP TCs, especially because four of the last five TC seasons (i.e. 2013-2017) have been above the 75th percentile of ACE (an integrated measure of hurricane activity) over the period 1975-2017. In September 2015, an unprecedented occurrence of three distinct Category 4 TCs surrounded Hawaii, although none caused significant damage to the region. A few weeks later, TC Patricia developed rapidly off the coast of Mexico into the most intense TC ever recorded, with peak one-minute sustained winds estimated at 185 knots. This emphasizes the fundamental values and urgency of understanding the environmental controls of TC activity and improving forecasts products, especially in the context of global warming, expected to promote an increased frequency of “high-societal impacts super-hurricanes”. Natural climate variability strongly modulates the statistics of TC activity on multiple time scales but ultimately our understanding of the relationships between this activity and climatic modes is limited. Recently, one line of research has emerged, suggesting that the upper ocean makes a more relevant warm reservoir than Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for a better estimation of the theoretical TC maximum intensity. In this seminar, I will review the influence of the tropical upper ocean variability and dynamics on the CEP TC activity from intraseasonal to interannual timescales. In particular, I will focus on the oceanic variability related to Tropical Instability Waves, Equatorial Kelvin Waves, different flavors of El Niño Southern Oscillation and their influence on the modulation of TC activity in the CEP. I will also discuss some implications for seasonal hurricane forecasting and issues related to global warming in this basin.

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